Guest voice: "Kamala Should go Nuclear"

Victim's watch, stopped at the minute of the bombing. (Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum)

     Election Day at last. A terrifying relief (if that isn't an oxymoron). I knew the stakes are as high as possible — democracy, literally on the line — when my good friend Cate Plys shared this essay explaining just how high they really are. Ideally it should have run in a major publication two weeks ago. But alas, space is tight, and she has to settle for here now. I'm posting it, not so it can serve its stated purpose of nudging Kamala Harris out of her comfort zone, but because it contains much relevant information you might not know. As I've been saying for months, if you're not terrified, you're not paying attention.

     I just got an email from Kamala Harris with the subject line “No regrets.”

     She emails me all the time, even though I never answer. Today I finally hit the reply button--because please. Kamala should have regrets pouring out of her ears, just like everybody else.

     Regret has a purpose. It makes us want to do better. Every single day is another chance. 

     Unfortunately, Kamala Harris only has one day left. Today.

     She should regret not giving straight answers on the issues most important to swing state voters — immigration, government-financed sex change operations for prisoners, pretending President Biden was fit to serve a second term. It’s a strategy, but a cynical one no one should be proud to use even if she wins. 

     Rather than straight answers about Harris’ positions, the Democrats want to scare voters to the polls. If there was ever a year when that could work, it’s 2024 when the Republicans are running a monstrous candidate. Yet the Democrats can’t even get this right.

     Look what they’ve tried so far: 

     A fascist Trump takeover of the federal government, soldiers patrolling the streets, no more elections? 

     Come on. You’re talking about a country that can’t wait to let AI and Amazon run their lives.       Absolute abortion bans, with miscarrying pregnant women dying of sepsis in parking lots after hospitals deny them medical care? 

     Maybe half the population is biting their nails, when Democrats need voters to run screaming out of the room.

     So here’s what I emailed Kamala: 

     Talk about utter devastation. 

     Talk charred desolation bereft of life for thousands of years. 

     Talk about nuclear war. 

     As we head into an election day when a majority of voters may pull a lever for Donald Trump, who could then press a button and end the world, it is time. 

     It’s not crazy. It’s the sanest way to think about it, if you can stand to think about it all. 

     The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a journal founded by scientists and intellectuals at the dawn of the Atomic Age, set its famous Doomsday Clock symbolizing the world’s danger of nuclear war at 90 seconds to midnight for 2023 — “the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been."

     They reset the clock at the same dire warning point for 2024, “in large part because of Russian threats to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.” 

     Last week, the Forecasting Research Institute released a report that practically nobody heard about because we were all talking about garbage. The FRI asked 110 nuclear experts and 41 “superforecasters” to consider the risk of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the 100th anniversary of the atomic age. 

     They defined “catastrophe” as a nuclear event killing 10 million people. 

     “Experts assigned a median 5% probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045,” according to the FRI report, “while experienced forecasters put the probability at 1%.” 

     The experts add that several all-too-realistic future scenarios could double or triple those numbers. 

     Perhaps a 15% chance of nuclear war would sufficiently terrorize Americans to vote for you, Kamala Harris. Perhaps not. We revel in post-apocalyptic movies, from “Planet of the Apes” to endless “Mad Max” sequels. Tell voters the real thing isn’t nearly as entertaining. 

School uniform (Hiroshima Peace 
Memorial Museum)

     The U.S. dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. “Little Boy” was a mere 13 kilotons. About 166,000 people died in the first four months alone — instantly, then from burns and radiation. 

     The Atomic Heritage Foundation website includes this survivor testimony: xxx “The appearance of people was… well, they all had skin blackened by burns… They had no hair because their hair was burned, and at a glance you couldn’t tell whether you were looking at them from in front or in back… Many of them died along the road — I can still picture them in my mind — like walking ghosts.” 

     The first hydrogen bomb from 1952 was already 700 times more powerful. Today, nine nuclear weapons states hold 12,200 nuclear warheads, 90% in the U.S. and Russia. 

     That means 5,500 nukes are aimed at us. Did that make you do a spit take with your morning coffee? 

     Even a 5% possibility of nuclear war should scare voters. The FRI experts believe a NATO-Russia military clash would increase the likelihood of our incineration to 15%. They predicted a 5% chance that NATO and Russia will fight, but that might be overly optimistic now: 

     As the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists noted, Russian President Vladimir Putin “announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus” in 2023 as part of its invasive war against Ukraine. 

     This past September, Putin warned that if Ukraine uses its Western-supplied missiles to attack deeper into Russia, Russia would be at war with NATO. 

     This month, U.S. says it’s observed 12,000 North Korean troops training with Russian soldiers, and 3,000 transported to eastern Russian training sites.

     Plus, North Korea — ruled by manifestly insane dictator Kim Jong-un — has its own nuclear weapons. They tested an intercontinental ballistic missile on October 24th. A week and a half ago. On Monday, North Korea fired a “barrage of short-range ballistic missiles” into the sea toward Japan. And according to South Korean intelligence, North Korea is getting ready for its seventh nuclear test.

     Elsewhere, the FRI experts think China invading Taiwan would double the chance of nuclear war, and they calculate the chance of invasion at 25% by 2030. 

     Why? Last March, the U. S. Air Force’s Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs featured “The Ambitious Dragon: China’s Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030.” The article noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech to the 20th National Congress “repeatedly reinforced the narrative that ‘complete reunification of our country must be realized, and it can, without a doubt, be realized.’” 

     Two weeks ago, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te made a speech for Taiwan’s National Day declaring he’ll “resist annexation or encroachment.” 

     Then, China conducted a military exercise surrounding Taiwan with an aircraft carrier, a swarm of other ships, and 125 fighter jets. 

     Oh, and did I mention the FRI experts say there’s a 25% chance Iran will have a nuclear weapon by 2030? That, they think, will double the threat of nuclear war. 

     I doubt many Americans even remember that last year Vladimir Putin “suspended” Russia’s participation in the New START treaty, the final remaining arms control agreement between Russia and the U.S. START included regular communications and notifications between the two countries, to avoid the misunderstandings that make for good screenplays. “Dr. Strangelove,” anyone? Anyone?? 

     Russia also backed out of its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 2023 — which the U.S. never ratified at all. 

     Kamala: Tell voters they might trust Donald Trump more on immigration and the economy. Now they have to decide whether they also trust him with the nuclear football. 

     There’s time for one more play before the polls close. Better make it a Hail Mary.

  

      Cate Plys is a former Chicago reporter and columnist who now writes the Chicago history website “Roseland, Chicago: 1972.” She participates on WGN host John Williams’ weekly current events podcast “The Mincing Rascals.” 

Genbaku Dome, Hiroshima