|National Museum of American History—Smithsonian Institution|
You know what Sunday is, right?
No, not the Super Bowl — geez, you’re worse than I am.
That’s … the first Sunday in February.
This coming Sunday, Jan. 20, is … wait for it … the second anniversary of the Trump presidency.
And you without a gift.
Don’t feel bad, these things sneak up.
Two years down.
Only … six to go.
Ha ha! You thought I was going to say “two to go,” didn’t you? You believe he’s out in 2020, if not before? Pretty to think so. But if this historical epoch has taught anybody anything—and I’m not convinced it has—it’s the infinite human capacity for self-delusion, and a bottomless genius for misunderstanding what is going on right before our eyes.
From where I’m sitting, Trump wins in 2020.
Why? Lots of reasons.
First, he’s the incumbent. History favors the incumbent: 19 presidents have run for re-election since 1900 (including Gerald Ford, who was technically running for his first election, since he was never voted in). Fourteen won, five lost—Taft to Wilson; Hoover to FDR; Ford to Carter; Carter to Reagan, and George H. W. Bush to Clinton.
So statistics give Trump almost 3-to-1 odds of winning.
Second, the Democrats display every indication of the disarray we’re so good at. All sorts of long-shot Dems are already throwing their hats in the ring. Bernie Sanders won’t go away. Add a strong third party candidate or two and the Left is a bunch of cats in a barrel scratching at each other as they go over the falls.
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