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| Assassination of Czar Alexander II |
Didn't see that one coming.
Well, we did. At least the possibility. As Vladimir Putin plunged his nation into a pointless, endless, bloody war against Ukraine, hand-wringing onlookers in the West optimistically speculated that maybe this would end by somebody moving against the Russian dictator for botching the situation so thoroughly. Maybe his people would rise up. Maybe somebody would stop him.
Yet nobody really believed that possible. Russia's second revolution, in 1991, turned out to be more of a shift from Communist tyrants to non-denominational dictators, like Putin, who seems cemented to office like a barnacle. He won't simply go away. It can't be that easy. Previous Russian leaders whose policies were epic disasters — Stalin allying himself with Hitler, only to be betrayed by him — were allowed to continue their campaigns of terror and error. For years.
Then for a few hours Saturday, Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries were headed to Moscow. Maybe deus ex machina, the nightmare would just stop. Who knows what might happen?
Turns out nothing, yet. Prigozhin fled to Belarus. Putin's misrule continues, the threat to his power banished. The meat-grinder in Ukraine grinds on.
Well, we did. At least the possibility. As Vladimir Putin plunged his nation into a pointless, endless, bloody war against Ukraine, hand-wringing onlookers in the West optimistically speculated that maybe this would end by somebody moving against the Russian dictator for botching the situation so thoroughly. Maybe his people would rise up. Maybe somebody would stop him.
Yet nobody really believed that possible. Russia's second revolution, in 1991, turned out to be more of a shift from Communist tyrants to non-denominational dictators, like Putin, who seems cemented to office like a barnacle. He won't simply go away. It can't be that easy. Previous Russian leaders whose policies were epic disasters — Stalin allying himself with Hitler, only to be betrayed by him — were allowed to continue their campaigns of terror and error. For years.
Then for a few hours Saturday, Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries were headed to Moscow. Maybe deus ex machina, the nightmare would just stop. Who knows what might happen?
Turns out nothing, yet. Prigozhin fled to Belarus. Putin's misrule continues, the threat to his power banished. The meat-grinder in Ukraine grinds on.
Perhaps this is a necessary reminder that heroic action leading to actual change is the realm of the movies. In real life, the tectonic forces of history grind on. Greed, self-interest and pitiless inertia mean that missteps, once taken, turn into calamitous journeys into ruin. "The road to hell is smooth," Virgil writes. "Easy the path and simple the way. But to turn, and regain the upper air. There the work, there the labor lies."
Although. The fact it began, that it seemed to almost happen, does remind us that anything is possible, and those that rise by raw power can fall by it too. With totalitarian successes being chalked up over the globe, and would-be fascists vying for position in this country, the pilot light of hope should be kept lit. We'll need it in the days ahead. And seeing Putin squirm to fend off enemies at home is just the fuel we need right now. Maybe next time it'll work.
Was very busy Saturday, bopping all over town. And this old geezer doesn't carry a phone. So I missed the whole megillah. Next time, start the revolution without me.
ReplyDeleteIt did work. Yevgeny Prigozhin scared the borscht out of Putin, and he's got to be wondering who else is plotting against him. This is not the play, just the intermission.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking this same thing. Prigozhin had no intention of going all the way to Moscow. He stopped when Putin boogied out of town. The man has a business in mercenary war. He gets rich off of it. Why would he want to govern a place as vast as Russia?
DeleteSaw this interesting comment at Reddit...and it's not new. It's from last : November:
Delete"Russia is already ungovernable. The evidence is in their military performance. The Russian state was unable to recruit, train, and field a competent military.
Why? Social problems prevent them from recruiting soldiers intelligent enough to properly use their equipment. Design and engineering problems, mixed with the requirement for technology to be totally idiot-proof, leads to poor military equipment.
Corruption in government leads to corruption through the entire military chain of command, leading to dead logistics lines, improperly maintained and recorded inventory and equipment, and inadequate training. Authoritarian leadership punishes anyone who speaks up to try to solve any of this.
Result: these issues play one on top of another, in a perverse cycle leaving one of the supposedly greatest military powers on Earth incapable of carrying out a relatively straight-forward campaign. What Russia has right now isn't so much governance as stability".
Long story short: This U.S. strategist thinks they're gonna lose....and he thought so seven months ago. Ukraine is Russia's Vietnam. Putin is already waist-deep in the big muddy borscht bowl. And the damn fool says "Push on."
I can't argue with any of your conclusions, Grizz, but I also can't forget the world I grew up in with the ever present probability of mutual assured destruction. It's back.
Deletejohn
The August 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt should at least count as a mini revolution. The coup was conducted by those who benefitted from the USSR's repressive regime. I was impressed by the Russian citizens constructing make shift barriers around Russia's parliament building AKA the White House, then acting as human shields in defense of Boris Yeltsin and his government. Fortunately the coup was defeated with minimal blood shed.
ReplyDeleteIt's possible if the Russian people are sick enough of the current regime, they can repeat the process. Unfortunately, many of the politicians who would be willing to stand up to Putin are dead.
Great and provocative column, written on a tight deadline. A few are saying this was all a ploy by Putin so that he could tighten the reins even more.
ReplyDeleteI am not quite sure was caused the split between the Wagner Group and Putin. But they seemed be united at some point. Wagner has played a significant role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where it has been reportedly deployed to assassinate Ukrainian leaders,[67] among other activities, and for which it has recruited prison inmates from Russia for frontline combat.[68][69] In December 2022, United States National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby claimed Wagner had 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts.[70] Others put the number of recruited prisoners at more than 20,000,[71] with the overall number of PMC forces present in Ukraine estimated at 20,000.[72] In 2023, Russia granted combat veteran status to Wagner contractors who took part in the invasion.[73] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group Indirectly our goverment has some what of a hand in this if you go back to 2014 when we had a hand in outsting a corrupted but democratically elected president in Ukraine. https://therealnews.com/rparry0303ukraine For those of you who don't know who Robert Parry he was one of the first to report about Iran Contra
ReplyDelete